Tag Archives: confirmation bias

People believe falsehoods despite new factual info

This is not news, but it turns out can be replicated in carefully designed experiments, as researchers at University College in London have observed in a submission to the journal PLOS: Computational Biology. And it turns out this bias toward old facts we thought were true over new facts showing the opposite can still exist even when choosing the old beliefs costs us something in return.

This last presidential election was a watershed moment for many of us in terms of politics, and not in a good way. No matter which candidate one supported, the amount of false news being passed about online was staggering and, if you value credible news, disheartening.  I witnessed perfectly intelligent people — some with advanced degrees — sharing articles which most any informed person would immediately assume to be factually incorrect.

Part of this is because the purveyors of false news — whether they are simply offering clickbait to make money or because they are spreading political propaganda — have become much better at making fake news seem real.

But part of it is because the false news being spread on both sides simply confirmed the biases of the person sharing it — confirmation bias.  If an article confirms our previous beliefs it seems true for that very reason no matter how outlandish it might seem when held up to scrutiny.

But what if choosing the wrong answer we knew to be true previously would cost us something in return?

Researchers at the Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, set up an experiment whereby individuals were shown symbols worth varying amounts of money. After a while, participants learned which symbols were worth most and began choosing those symbols as expected.

In a second experiment,  however, participants were shown the same lucrative symbols from the first experiment. Added to these were new symbols worth more money, making the choosing of the old symbols cost participants in terms of potential earnings lost.

An interesting thing happened: participants would still choose the old symbols even though they were plainly shown doing so would cost them money . 

This all sounds exceedingly simple, but the researchers controlled for all sort of variables in the participants and in the way they crunched their numbers.  I don’t know exactly what “dimensionality reduction and model comparison” and “parameter correlation and parameter recovery” are, but the trained scientists who do these sorts of experiments know exactly what they are and that is what elevates research like this from something you might do with your friends into the realm of accepted scientific research.

Of course, this will all have to be confirmed with more experiments by other scientists who read these results in this respected journal and try to replicate them, which is how science works and why it is so important that it be done properly.

These same kinds of results keep appearing in similar studies. If these findings are confirmed down the road it raises interesting questions for our everyday life, in education, and in understanding why people continue to hold onto false beliefs.

The researchers from University College have some ideas as to why people might still hold onto false information even when still believing it to be true might cost them something. 

Some of it might be simply the satisfaction of thinking we are correct and refusing to let go of that feeling that we are smart.

It also might hold some evolutionary reasons which translate into today’s world, such as the mere fact that, as other research has shown, being supremely confident in your own abilities and choices can often make a person with few facts and low ability more successful that a person with more facts, greater abilities but possessing chronically low self-confidence.

I have a friend, the grandson of Holocaust survivors, whose grandparents are staunch supporters of President Donald Trump despite the latter being tied to, and refusing to immediately condemn, Nazis and other forms of anti-Semitic rabble.

This has, of course, caused great pain among for the grandparents and some of their progeny who cannot understand how the grandparents could support such a man — especially considering the background of the grandparents with Nazi Germany.

There has been much shaming of the grandparents and hurt feelings on all sides. Through it all, grandpa — the self-made business success story — has dug in his heels with grandma the dutiful follower.

Grandpa the self-made man likely has much emotional real estate invested in his stubborn support of Trump.  Plying him with facts and condemning him for his choices has gotten nowhere.

Perhaps the best approach to grandpa — and anyone else we are trying to dissuade from contradictory beliefs which alarm us — is to find a way of helping them to save their ego while still choosing the the thing that is true over the thing they want to be true.

How one might do that is an open question and will likely vary from person to person.

In the real world, it is clear that telling a person how stupid they are for not acknowledging the plain-to-see (for most of us, anyway) facts in front of them simply doesn’t work with many people.

This week’s Snopes update

The Snopes.com web site investigates rumors that are bouncing around the internet. Some of the rumors are old. Some were in the news. When the rumors are false, they tend toward the ridiculous end of the spectrum usually involving some right-wing craziness about black helicopters coming to take away their bibles and guns or forcing all of us to submit to microchip implants.

Here are some of the latest. Remember, some of these are not new, but Snopes posts an alert when the page is updated in some way. Have fun informing yourself about the crazy stuff people come up with — or are actually doing.

FACT CHECK: Is NASCAR unveiling a new LGBT  Stars and Gay Bars flag for racing fans?

NEWS: News of the death of actor Andy Griffith, who passed away in 2012, began recirculating online in July 2015.

FACT CHECK: Does a photograph document that Walmart stores were ordered to remove  Made in the USA  signs because the company is  ashamed of the U.S. ?

FACT CHECK: Did President Obama sign an executive order authorizing the opening of an ISIS-sympathetic youth center in Dearborn?

NEWS: Two scientists have suggested that Comet 67P could harbor a form of alien life.

NEWS: What appeared to be a spate of arsons at Southern black churches following the Charleston massacre was likely a product of confirmation bias.

NEWS: Various news outlets report that Seattle sixth graders can obtain IUDs without parental consent but cannot buy soda at school.

FACT CHECK: Did thousands of Christian couples file for divorce to protest the Supreme Court s ruling on gay marriage?

Pope Francis

FACT CHECK: Did Pope Francis announce during a sermon that God had instructed him to change the Ten Commandments?

NEWS: A June 2015 Facebook post claims a woman’s neighbor died of suffocation due to e-cigarette use, but the claim has neither been substantiated nor reported upon in the news.

FACT CHECK: Have Subway restaurants announced that they are now adding peas to their guacamole? (Editor’s note: see my previous post about this here.)

FACT CHECK: Was a Philippine baby recently born with stigmata, attracting visits from thousands of devout Christians?

FACT CHECK: Is a petition seeking the arrest of a woman who cut the limbs off a muzzled dog accurate and current?

FACT CHECK: Did Sen. Dianne Feinstein say she is unsympathetic to veterans who experience symptoms of PTSD because they  deserve  it?

FACT CHECK: Was a girl electrocuted while using earbuds plugged into an iPhone that was being recharged?

FACT CHECK: Did a pithy criticism of Obamacare originate with Donald Trump?

NEWS: Nobel Prize winner Dr. Ivar Giaever said that President Obama was  dead wrong on climate change.

NEWS: Former President George W. Bush was paid $100,000 to speak at a charity fundraiser for wounded veterans in 2012.

NEWS: The Environmental Working Group reported that they found asbestos in four brands of children s crayons.

NEWS: Report of robbers flinging eggs at car windshields to impair drivers  vision and force them to stop.

FACT CHECK: Did President Obama admit  during remarks he delivered at the Pentagon that the United States was  training ISIL ?

FACT CHECK: Is a new  transgender tampon arriving in stores soon?

NEWS: A Change.org petition satirically demands the restaurant and gift shop chain  Cracker Barrel  be renamed  Caucasian Barrel.

And there you have them: the wonderful and the weird for this week. Enjoy.

Also, I do not necessarily agree nor disagree with the Snopes findings for any of these. If you disagree with them, don’t contact me. Contact Snopes directly.